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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // VA-02 ]

Virginia's 2nd District

Elaine Luria (D)vsJen Kiggans (R)

incumbent running · Lean: an even district · Incumbent: Jen Kiggans (R)

8 in 10

Elaine Luria favored75%

Likely for Elaine Luria: a 75 percent chance of winning. Polls: Elaine Luria up 3.0.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:an even district
  • Incumbent:Jen Kiggans (R)
  • District:2 of 11 in Virginia
  • Odds:Luria 75%
  • Margin:Luria +4.3, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Luria +3.0
  • Latest poll:Christopher Newport University, Oct 10, Luria +3.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Luria +4.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Luria +4.3
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Kiggans +1.8 to Luria +10.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
Luria +3.0 across 2 polls, worth 0.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Luria +5.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Luria ahead is positive, Kiggans ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jen Kiggans (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Elaine Luria (D) vs Jen Kiggans (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 47.0, Republican 50.8. Kiggans by 3.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.0, Harris 51.8. Harris by 5.8.
Lean
Even

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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