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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // VA-04 ]

Virginia's 4th District

Jennifer McClellan (D)vsRobert Murray (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+17 · Incumbent: Jennifer McClellan (D)

99 in 100

Jennifer McClellan favored>99%

All but certain for Jennifer McClellan: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+17
  • Incumbent:Jennifer McClellan (D)
  • District:4 of 11 in Virginia
  • Odds:McClellan >99%
  • Margin:McClellan +44.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

McClellan +44.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
McClellan +44.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
McClellan +36.3 to McClellan +52.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
McClellan +44.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: McClellan ahead is positive, Murray ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+17, worth 29.6 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Jennifer McClellan, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of McClellan +44.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jennifer McClellan (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jennifer McClellan (D, incumbent) vs Robert Murray (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 67.5, Republican 32.5. McClellan by 35.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.0, Harris 51.8. Harris by 5.8.
Lean
D+17 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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