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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // VA-06 ]

Virginia's 6th District

Beth Macy (D)vsBen Cline (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+12 · Incumbent: Ben Cline (R)

99 in 100

Ben Cline favored>99%

All but certain for Ben Cline: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Ben Cline up 28.7.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+12
  • Incumbent:Ben Cline (R)
  • District:6 of 11 in Virginia
  • Odds:Cline >99%
  • Margin:Cline +21.1, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Cline +28.7
  • Latest poll:co/efficient, Sep 30, Cline +30.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Cline +21.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Cline +21.1
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Cline +27.2 to Cline +15.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
Cline +28.7 across 1 poll, worth 0.3 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Cline +15.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Macy ahead is positive, Cline ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • co/efficientCline +30
    Sep 30 · B · 791 LV29 to 59 · 100% weight
    adjusted Cline +28.7

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Ben Cline (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Beth Macy (D) vs Ben Cline (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 34.8, Republican 63.2. Cline by 28.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.0, Harris 51.8. Harris by 5.8.
Lean
R+12 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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