Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // VA-11 ]

Virginia's 11th District

James Walkinshaw (D)vsArthur Purves (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+18 · Incumbent: James Walkinshaw (D)

99 in 100

James Walkinshaw favored>99%

All but certain for James Walkinshaw: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+18
  • Incumbent:James Walkinshaw (D)
  • District:11 of 11 in Virginia
  • Odds:Walkinshaw >99%
  • Margin:Walkinshaw +46.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Walkinshaw +46.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Walkinshaw +46.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Walkinshaw +38.1 to Walkinshaw +53.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Walkinshaw +46.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Walkinshaw ahead is positive, Purves ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+18, worth 31.3 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (James Walkinshaw, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Walkinshaw +46.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
James Walkinshaw (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
James Walkinshaw (D, incumbent) vs Arthur Purves (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 67.0, Republican 33.0. Connolly by 34.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.0, Harris 51.8. Harris by 5.8.
Lean
D+18 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats