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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // VA-09 ]

Virginia's 9th District

Joy Powers (D)vsMorgan Griffith (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+22 · Incumbent: Morgan Griffith (R)

99 in 100

Morgan Griffith favored>99%

All but certain for Morgan Griffith: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+22
  • Incumbent:Morgan Griffith (R)
  • District:9 of 11 in Virginia
  • Odds:Griffith >99%
  • Margin:Griffith +33.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Griffith +33.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Griffith +33.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Griffith +41.0 to Griffith +25.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Griffith +33.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Powers ahead is positive, Griffith ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+22, worth 38.3 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Morgan Griffith, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Griffith +33.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Morgan Griffith (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Joy Powers (D) vs Morgan Griffith (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 27.4, Republican 72.6. Griffith by 45.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.0, Harris 51.8. Harris by 5.8.
Lean
R+22 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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