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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // WI-04 ]

Wisconsin's 4th District

Gwen Moore (D)vsTim Rogers (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+26 · Incumbent: Gwen Moore (D)

99 in 100

Gwen Moore favored>99%

All but certain for Gwen Moore: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+26
  • Incumbent:Gwen Moore (D)
  • District:4 of 8 in Wisconsin
  • Odds:Moore >99%
  • Margin:Moore +59.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Moore +59.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Moore +59.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Moore +52.0 to Moore +67.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Moore +59.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Moore ahead is positive, Rogers ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+26, worth 45.2 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Gwen Moore, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Moore +59.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Gwen Moore (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Gwen Moore (D, incumbent) vs Tim Rogers (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 74.9, Republican 22.4. Moore by 52.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.6, Harris 48.7. Trump by 0.9.
Lean
D+26 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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