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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // WI-06 ]

Wisconsin's 6th District

Brad Smith (D)vsGlenn Grothman (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: Glenn Grothman (R)

99 in 100

Glenn Grothman favored>99%

All but certain for Glenn Grothman: a 99 percent chance of winning. Polls: Glenn Grothman up 25.0.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:Glenn Grothman (R)
  • District:6 of 8 in Wisconsin
  • Odds:Grothman >99%
  • Margin:Grothman +15.5, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Grothman +25.0
  • Latest poll:Tavern Research, May 28, Grothman +22.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Grothman +15.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Grothman +15.5
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Grothman +21.6 to Grothman +9.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
Grothman +25.0 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Grothman +8.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Smith ahead is positive, Grothman ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Tavern ResearchGrothman +22
    May 28 · unrated · 437 LV39 to 61 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Grothman +25.0

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Glenn Grothman (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Brad Smith (D) vs Glenn Grothman (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 38.7, Republican 61.3. Grothman by 22.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.6, Harris 48.7. Trump by 0.9.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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