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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // WI-07 ]

Wisconsin's 7th District

Fred Clark (D)vsMichael Alfonso (R)

open seat · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Tom Tiffany (R), not running

9 in 10

Michael Alfonso favored89%

Very likely for Michael Alfonso: a 89 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Tom Tiffany (R), not running
  • District:7 of 8 in Wisconsin
  • Odds:Alfonso 89%
  • Margin:Alfonso +9.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Alfonso +9.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Alfonso +9.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Alfonso +17.1 to Alfonso +1.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Alfonso +9.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Clark ahead is positive, Alfonso ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Alfonso +9.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Tom Tiffany (R) is running for governor instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Fred Clark (D) vs Michael Alfonso (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 36.4, Republican 63.6. Tiffany by 27.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.6, Harris 48.7. Trump by 0.9.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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