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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // WI-08 ]

Wisconsin's 8th District

Rick Crosson (D)vsTony Wied (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: Tony Wied (R)

9 in 10

Tony Wied favored88%

Very likely for Tony Wied: a 88 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:Tony Wied (R)
  • District:8 of 8 in Wisconsin
  • Odds:Wied 88%
  • Margin:Wied +8.8, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Wied +8.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Wied +8.8
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Wied +16.7 to Wied +0.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Wied +8.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Crosson ahead is positive, Wied ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+8, worth 13.9 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Tony Wied, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Wied +8.8 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Tony Wied (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Rick Crosson (D) vs Tony Wied (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 42.7, Republican 57.3. Wied by 14.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.6, Harris 48.7. Trump by 0.9.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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