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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-09 ]

Florida's 9th District

Darren Soto (D)vsDan Green (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: Darren Soto (D)

6 in 10

Dan Green favored59%

A slight edge for Dan Green: a 59 percent chance of winning. Polls: Dan Green up 4.5.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:Darren Soto (D)
  • District:9 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Green 59%
  • Margin:Green +1.4, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Green +4.5
  • Latest poll:SEA Polling, Aug 30, tied
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Green +1.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Green +1.4
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Green +7.5 to Soto +4.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Green +4.5 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Soto +0.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Soto ahead is positive, Green ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • SEA PollingTie
    Aug 30 · unrated · 400 LV41 to 41 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Green +4.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Darren Soto (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Darren Soto (D, incumbent) vs Dan Green (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 55.1, Republican 42.6. Soto by 12.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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