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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // VA-05 ]

Virginia's 5th District

Tom Perriello (D)vsJohn McGuire (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+6 · Incumbent: John McGuire (R)

8 in 10

John McGuire favored81%

Likely for John McGuire: a 81 percent chance of winning. Polls: John McGuire up 5.7.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+6
  • Incumbent:John McGuire (R)
  • District:5 of 11 in Virginia
  • Odds:McGuire 81%
  • Margin:McGuire +5.5, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging McGuire +5.7
  • Latest poll:The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government, Sep 28, McGuire +6.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

McGuire +5.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
McGuire +5.5
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
McGuire +11.6 to Perriello +0.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
McGuire +5.7 across 3 polls, worth 0.4 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
McGuire +5.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Perriello ahead is positive, McGuire ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
John McGuire (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Tom Perriello (D) vs John McGuire (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 42.5, Republican 57.5. McGuire by 15.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.0, Harris 51.8. Harris by 5.8.
Lean
R+6 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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