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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CO-08 ]

Colorado's 8th District

Manny Rutinel (D)vsGabe Evans (R)

incumbent running · Lean: an even district · Incumbent: Gabe Evans (R)

8 in 10

Manny Rutinel favored76%

Likely for Manny Rutinel: a 76 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:an even district
  • Incumbent:Gabe Evans (R)
  • District:8 of 8 in Colorado
  • Odds:Rutinel 76%
  • Margin:Rutinel +5.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Rutinel +5.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Rutinel +5.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Evans +2.7 to Rutinel +13.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Rutinel +5.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Rutinel ahead is positive, Evans ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (an even district, worth 0.0 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Gabe Evans, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Rutinel +5.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Gabe Evans (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Manny Rutinel (D) vs Gabe Evans (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 48.2, Republican 49.0. Evans by 0.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.1, Harris 54.1. Harris by 11.0.
Lean
Even

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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