Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // CO-05 ]

Colorado's 5th District

Jessica Killin (D)vsJeff Crank (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+5 · Incumbent: Jeff Crank (R)

7 in 10

Jeff Crank favored72%

Likely for Jeff Crank: a 72 percent chance of winning. Polls: Jeff Crank up 4.1.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+5
  • Incumbent:Jeff Crank (R)
  • District:5 of 8 in Colorado
  • Odds:Crank 72%
  • Margin:Crank +3.8, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Crank +4.1
  • Latest poll:Global Strategy Group, Jul 21, Crank +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Crank +3.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Crank +3.8
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Crank +9.9 to Killin +2.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Crank +4.1 across 2 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Crank +3.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Killin ahead is positive, Crank ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • Global Strategy GroupCrank +1
    Jul 21 · B/C · 450 LV44 to 45 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Crank +4.1
  • Global Strategy GroupCrank +3
    Nov 03 · B/C · 450 LV40 to 43 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Crank +6.1

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jeff Crank (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jessica Killin (D) vs Jeff Crank (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 40.9, Republican 54.7. Crank by 13.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.1, Harris 54.1. Harris by 11.0.
Lean
R+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats