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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CO-03 ]

Colorado's 3rd District

Dwayne Romero (D)vsJeff Hurd (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+5 · Incumbent: Jeff Hurd (R)

8 in 10

Jeff Hurd favored76%

Likely for Jeff Hurd: a 76 percent chance of winning. Polls: Jeff Hurd up 5.5.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+5
  • Incumbent:Jeff Hurd (R)
  • District:3 of 8 in Colorado
  • Odds:Hurd 76%
  • Margin:Hurd +4.4, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Hurd +5.5
  • Latest poll:Keating Research, Inc., Jul 23, Hurd +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hurd +4.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hurd +4.4
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hurd +10.5 to Romero +1.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Hurd +5.5 across 3 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Hurd +3.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Romero ahead is positive, Hurd ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jeff Hurd (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Dwayne Romero (D) vs Jeff Hurd (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 45.8, Republican 50.8. Hurd by 5.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.1, Harris 54.1. Harris by 11.0.
Lean
R+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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