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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CO-01 ]

Colorado's 1st District

Melat Kiros (D)vsChristy Peterson (R)

open seat · Lean: D+29 · Incumbent: Diana DeGette (D), not running

99 in 100

Melat Kiros favored>99%

All but certain for Melat Kiros: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+29
  • Incumbent:Diana DeGette (D), not running
  • District:1 of 8 in Colorado
  • Odds:Kiros >99%
  • Margin:Kiros +60.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Kiros +60.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Kiros +60.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Kiros +52.5 to Kiros +68.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Kiros +60.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Kiros ahead is positive, Peterson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+29, worth 50.5 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Kiros +60.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Diana DeGette (D) lost the primary. Open seat.
On the ballot
Melat Kiros (D) vs Christy Peterson (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 76.6, Republican 21.6. DeGette by 55.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.1, Harris 54.1. Harris by 11.0.
Lean
D+29 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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