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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CO-04 ]

Colorado's 4th District

Eileen Laubacher (D)vsLauren Boebert (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+9 · Incumbent: Lauren Boebert (R)

9 in 10

Lauren Boebert favored89%

Very likely for Lauren Boebert: a 89 percent chance of winning. Polls: Lauren Boebert up 3.8.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+9
  • Incumbent:Lauren Boebert (R)
  • District:4 of 8 in Colorado
  • Odds:Boebert 89%
  • Margin:Boebert +7.7, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Boebert +3.8
  • Latest poll:Impact Research, Sep 24, Boebert +5.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Boebert +7.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Boebert +7.7
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Boebert +13.8 to Boebert +1.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Boebert +3.8 across 1 poll, worth 0.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Boebert +10.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Laubacher ahead is positive, Boebert ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Impact ResearchBoebert +5
    Sep 24 · B/C · 403 LV40 to 45 · 100% weight
    Partisan sponsoradjusted Boebert +3.8

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Lauren Boebert (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Eileen Laubacher (D) vs Lauren Boebert (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 42.0, Republican 53.6. Boebert by 11.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.1, Harris 54.1. Harris by 11.0.
Lean
R+9 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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