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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-25 ]

Florida's 25th District

Jared Moskowitz (D)vsScott Singer (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+3 · Incumbent: Jared Moskowitz Redistricted from the 23rd district (D)

9 in 10

Jared Moskowitz favored91%

Very likely for Jared Moskowitz: a 91 percent chance of winning. Polls: Jared Moskowitz up 7.5.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+3
  • Incumbent:Jared Moskowitz Redistricted from the 23rd district (D)
  • District:25 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Moskowitz 91%
  • Margin:Moskowitz +8.6, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Moskowitz +7.5
  • Latest poll:Middle Seat, May 06, Moskowitz +12.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Moskowitz +8.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Moskowitz +8.6
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Moskowitz +2.5 to Moskowitz +14.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Moskowitz +7.5 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Moskowitz +9.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Moskowitz ahead is positive, Singer ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Middle SeatMoskowitz +12
    May 06 · unrated · 576 LV51 to 39 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Moskowitz +7.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jared Moskowitz Redistricted from the 23rd district (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jared Moskowitz (D) vs Scott Singer (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 54.5, Republican 45.5. Schultz by 9.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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