Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IL-02 ]

Illinois's 2nd District

Donna Miller (D)vsMichael Noack (R)

open seat · Lean: D+18 · Incumbent: Robin Kelly (D), not running

99 in 100

Donna Miller favored>99%

All but certain for Donna Miller: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+18
  • Incumbent:Robin Kelly (D), not running
  • District:2 of 17 in Illinois
  • Odds:Miller >99%
  • Margin:Miller +41.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Miller +41.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Miller +41.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Miller +33.3 to Miller +49.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Miller +41.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Miller ahead is positive, Noack ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+18, worth 31.3 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Miller +41.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Robin Kelly (D) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Donna Miller (D) vs Michael Noack (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 67.6, Republican 32.4. Kelly by 35.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.5, Harris 54.4. Harris by 10.9.
Lean
D+18 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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