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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IL-07 ]

Illinois's 7th District

La Shawn Ford (D)vsChad Koppie (R)

open seat · Lean: D+34 · Incumbent: Danny Davis (D), not running

99 in 100

La Shawn Ford favored>99%

All but certain for La Shawn Ford: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+34
  • Incumbent:Danny Davis (D), not running
  • District:7 of 17 in Illinois
  • Odds:Ford >99%
  • Margin:Ford +69.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Ford +69.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Ford +69.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Ford +61.2 to Ford +77.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Ford +69.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Ford ahead is positive, Koppie ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+34, worth 59.2 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Ford +69.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Danny Davis (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
La Shawn Ford (D) vs Chad Koppie (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 83.3, Republican 16.7. Davis by 66.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.5, Harris 54.4. Harris by 10.9.
Lean
D+34 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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