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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IL-09 ]

Illinois's 9th District

Daniel Biss (D)vsJohn Elleson (R)

open seat · Lean: D+19 · Incumbent: Jan Schakowsky (D), not running

99 in 100

Daniel Biss favored>99%

All but certain for Daniel Biss: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+19
  • Incumbent:Jan Schakowsky (D), not running
  • District:9 of 17 in Illinois
  • Odds:Biss >99%
  • Margin:Biss +43.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Biss +43.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Biss +43.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Biss +35.1 to Biss +50.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Biss +43.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Biss ahead is positive, Elleson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+19, worth 33.1 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Biss +43.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jan Schakowsky (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Daniel Biss (D) vs John Elleson (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 68.4, Republican 31.6. Schakowsky by 36.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.5, Harris 54.4. Harris by 10.9.
Lean
D+19 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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