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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IL-05 ]

Illinois's 5th District

Mike Quigley (D)vsTommy Hanson (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+19 · Incumbent: Mike Quigley (D)

99 in 100

Mike Quigley favored>99%

All but certain for Mike Quigley: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+19
  • Incumbent:Mike Quigley (D)
  • District:5 of 17 in Illinois
  • Odds:Quigley >99%
  • Margin:Quigley +47.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Quigley +47.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Quigley +47.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Quigley +39.8 to Quigley +55.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Quigley +47.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Quigley ahead is positive, Hanson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+19, worth 33.1 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Mike Quigley, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Quigley +47.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mike Quigley (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Mike Quigley (D, incumbent) vs Tommy Hanson (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 69.0, Republican 31.0. Quigley by 38.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.5, Harris 54.4. Harris by 10.9.
Lean
D+19 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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