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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IL-06 ]

Illinois's 6th District

Sean Casten (D)vsNiki Conforti (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+3 · Incumbent: Sean Casten (D)

99 in 100

Sean Casten favored>99%

All but certain for Sean Casten: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+3
  • Incumbent:Sean Casten (D)
  • District:6 of 17 in Illinois
  • Odds:Casten >99%
  • Margin:Casten +19.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Casten +19.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Casten +19.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Casten +12.0 to Casten +27.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Casten +19.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Casten ahead is positive, Conforti ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+3, worth 5.2 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Sean Casten, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Casten +19.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Sean Casten (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Sean Casten (D, incumbent) vs Niki Conforti (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 54.2, Republican 45.8. Casten by 8.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.5, Harris 54.4. Harris by 10.9.
Lean
D+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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