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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IL-08 ]

Illinois's 8th District

Melissa Bean (D)vsJennifer Davis (R)

open seat · Lean: D+5 · Incumbent: Raja Krishnamoorthi (D), not running

99 in 100

Melissa Bean favored>99%

All but certain for Melissa Bean: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+5
  • Incumbent:Raja Krishnamoorthi (D), not running
  • District:8 of 17 in Illinois
  • Odds:Bean >99%
  • Margin:Bean +18.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bean +18.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bean +18.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Bean +10.7 to Bean +26.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Bean +18.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Bean ahead is positive, Davis ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+5, worth 8.7 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Bean +18.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Melissa Bean (D) vs Jennifer Davis (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 57.1, Republican 42.9. Krishnamoorthi by 14.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.5, Harris 54.4. Harris by 10.9.
Lean
D+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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