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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // LA-05 ]

Louisiana's 5th District

Dan McKay (D)vsStewart Cathey Jr. (R)

open seat · Lean: R+17 · Incumbent: Julia Letlow (R), not running

99 in 100

Stewart Cathey Jr. favored>99%

All but certain for Stewart Cathey Jr.: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+17
  • Incumbent:Julia Letlow (R), not running
  • District:5 of 6 in Louisiana
  • Odds:Cathey >99%
  • Margin:Cathey +19.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Cathey +19.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Cathey +19.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Cathey +27.6 to Cathey +11.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Cathey +19.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: McKay ahead is positive, Cathey ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+17, worth 29.6 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Cathey +19.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Julia Letlow (R) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Dan McKay (D) vs Stewart Cathey Jr. (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 25.9, Republican 62.9. Letlow by 37.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 60.2, Harris 38.2. Trump by 22.0.
Lean
R+17 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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