Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // LA-01 ]

Louisiana's 1st District

Lauren Jewett (D)vsRandall Arrington (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+20 · Incumbent: Steve Scalise (R)

99 in 100

Randall Arrington favored>99%

All but certain for Randall Arrington: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+20
  • Incumbent:Steve Scalise (R)
  • District:1 of 6 in Louisiana
  • Odds:Arrington >99%
  • Margin:Arrington +29.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Arrington +29.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Arrington +29.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Arrington +37.5 to Arrington +21.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Arrington +29.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jewett ahead is positive, Arrington ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+20, worth 34.8 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Steve Scalise, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Arrington +29.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Steve Scalise (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Lauren Jewett (D) vs Randall Arrington (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 24.0, Republican 66.8. Scalise by 42.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 60.2, Harris 38.2. Trump by 22.0.
Lean
R+20 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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