Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // LA-03 ]

Louisiana's 3rd District

John Day (D)vsKate Cotten (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+18 · Incumbent: Clay Higgins (R)

99 in 100

Kate Cotten favored>99%

All but certain for Kate Cotten: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+18
  • Incumbent:Clay Higgins (R)
  • District:3 of 6 in Louisiana
  • Odds:Cotten >99%
  • Margin:Cotten +26.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Cotten +26.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Cotten +26.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Cotten +34.1 to Cotten +18.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Cotten +26.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Day ahead is positive, Cotten ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+18, worth 31.3 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Clay Higgins, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Cotten +26.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Clay Higgins (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
John Day (D) vs Kate Cotten (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 18.7, Republican 70.6. Higgins by 51.9.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 60.2, Harris 38.2. Trump by 22.0.
Lean
R+18 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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