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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // LA-04 ]

Louisiana's 4th District

Conrad Cable (D)vsGordon Heslop (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+17 · Incumbent: Mike Johnson (R)

99 in 100

Gordon Heslop favored>99%

All but certain for Gordon Heslop: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+17
  • Incumbent:Mike Johnson (R)
  • District:4 of 6 in Louisiana
  • Odds:Heslop >99%
  • Margin:Heslop +24.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Heslop +24.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Heslop +24.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Heslop +32.3 to Heslop +16.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Heslop +24.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Cable ahead is positive, Heslop ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+17, worth 29.6 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Mike Johnson, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Heslop +24.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mike Johnson (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Conrad Cable (D) vs Gordon Heslop (R)
Last time
2024: Mike Johnson (R) took 85.8 with no Democrat on the ballot.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 60.2, Harris 38.2. Trump by 22.0.
Lean
R+17 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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