Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // LA-06 ]

Louisiana's 6th District

Pat Forbes (D)vsMonique Appeaning (R)

open seat · Lean: R+16 · Incumbent: Cleo Fields (D), not running

99 in 100

Monique Appeaning favored>99%

All but certain for Monique Appeaning: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+16
  • Incumbent:Cleo Fields (D), not running
  • District:6 of 6 in Louisiana
  • Odds:Appeaning >99%
  • Margin:Appeaning +17.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Appeaning +17.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Appeaning +17.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Appeaning +25.8 to Appeaning +10.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Appeaning +17.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Forbes ahead is positive, Appeaning ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+16, worth 27.8 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Appeaning +17.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Cleo Fields (D) is running for state senate instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Pat Forbes (D) vs Monique Appeaning (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 50.8, Republican 37.7. Fields by 13.1.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 60.2, Harris 38.2. Trump by 22.0.
Lean
R+16 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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