Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // LA-02 ]

Louisiana's 2nd District

Troy Carter (D)vsPeter Williams (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+25 · Incumbent: Troy Carter (D)

99 in 100

Troy Carter favored>99%

All but certain for Troy Carter: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+25
  • Incumbent:Troy Carter (D)
  • District:2 of 6 in Louisiana
  • Odds:Carter >99%
  • Margin:Carter +58.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Carter +58.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Carter +58.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Carter +50.3 to Carter +66.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Carter +58.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Carter ahead is positive, Williams ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+25, worth 43.5 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Troy Carter, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Carter +58.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Troy Carter (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Troy Carter (D, incumbent) vs Peter Williams (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 60.3, Republican 13.6. Carter by 46.7.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 60.2, Harris 38.2. Trump by 22.0.
Lean
D+25 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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