Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // MI-01 ]

Michigan's 1st District

Callie Barr (D)vsJack Bergman (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Jack Bergman (R)

9 in 10

Jack Bergman favored97%

Very likely for Jack Bergman: a 97 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Jack Bergman (R)
  • District:1 of 13 in Michigan
  • Odds:Bergman 97%
  • Margin:Bergman +14.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bergman +14.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bergman +14.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Bergman +21.9 to Bergman +6.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Bergman +14.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Barr ahead is positive, Bergman ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Jack Bergman, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Bergman +14.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jack Bergman (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Callie Barr (D) vs Jack Bergman (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 37.9, Republican 59.1. Bergman by 21.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.7, Harris 48.3. Trump by 1.4.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats