Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // MI-05 ]

Michigan's 5th District

Christian Vukasovich (D)vsTim Walberg (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+13 · Incumbent: Tim Walberg (R)

99 in 100

Tim Walberg favored>99%

All but certain for Tim Walberg: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+13
  • Incumbent:Tim Walberg (R)
  • District:5 of 13 in Michigan
  • Odds:Walberg >99%
  • Margin:Walberg +17.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Walberg +17.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Walberg +17.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Walberg +25.4 to Walberg +9.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Walberg +17.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Vukasovich ahead is positive, Walberg ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+13, worth 22.6 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Tim Walberg, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Walberg +17.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Tim Walberg (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Christian Vukasovich (D) vs Tim Walberg (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 32.8, Republican 65.7. Walberg by 32.9.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.7, Harris 48.3. Trump by 1.4.
Lean
R+13 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats