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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MI-02 ]

Michigan's 2nd District

Ben Ambrose (D)vsJohn Moolenaar (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+15 · Incumbent: John Moolenaar (R)

99 in 100

John Moolenaar favored>99%

All but certain for John Moolenaar: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+15
  • Incumbent:John Moolenaar (R)
  • District:2 of 13 in Michigan
  • Odds:Moolenaar >99%
  • Margin:Moolenaar +20.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Moolenaar +20.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Moolenaar +20.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Moolenaar +28.8 to Moolenaar +13.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Moolenaar +20.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Ambrose ahead is positive, Moolenaar ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+15, worth 26.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (John Moolenaar, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Moolenaar +20.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
John Moolenaar (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Ben Ambrose (D) vs John Moolenaar (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 31.7, Republican 65.1. Moolenaar by 33.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.7, Harris 48.3. Trump by 1.4.
Lean
R+15 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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