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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // MI-08 ]

Michigan's 8th District

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)vsThomas Smith (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+1 · Incumbent: Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)

9 in 10

Kristen McDonald Rivet favored96%

Very likely for Kristen McDonald Rivet: a 96 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+1
  • Incumbent:Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)
  • District:8 of 13 in Michigan
  • Odds:Rivet 96%
  • Margin:Rivet +12.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Rivet +12.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Rivet +12.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Rivet +5.0 to Rivet +20.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Rivet +12.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Rivet ahead is positive, Smith ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+1, worth 1.7 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Kristen McDonald Rivet, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Rivet +12.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kristen McDonald Rivet (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Kristen McDonald Rivet (D, incumbent) vs Thomas Smith (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 51.2, Republican 44.6. Rivet by 6.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.7, Harris 48.3. Trump by 1.4.
Lean
R+1 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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