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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MI-11 ]

Michigan's 11th District

Jeremy Moss (D)vsEthan Baker (R)

open seat · Lean: D+9 · Incumbent: Haley Stevens (D), not running

99 in 100

Jeremy Moss favored>99%

All but certain for Jeremy Moss: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+9
  • Incumbent:Haley Stevens (D), not running
  • District:11 of 13 in Michigan
  • Odds:Moss >99%
  • Margin:Moss +25.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Moss +25.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Moss +25.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Moss +17.7 to Moss +33.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Moss +25.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Moss ahead is positive, Baker ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+9, worth 15.7 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Moss +25.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Haley Stevens (D) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Jeremy Moss (D) vs Ethan Baker (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 58.2, Republican 39.6. Stevens by 18.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.7, Harris 48.3. Trump by 1.4.
Lean
D+9 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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