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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MI-09 ]

Michigan's 9th District

Ray Pooley (D)vsLisa McClain (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+16 · Incumbent: Lisa McClain (R)

99 in 100

Lisa McClain favored>99%

All but certain for Lisa McClain: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+16
  • Incumbent:Lisa McClain (R)
  • District:9 of 13 in Michigan
  • Odds:McClain >99%
  • Margin:McClain +22.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

McClain +22.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
McClain +22.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
McClain +30.6 to McClain +14.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
McClain +22.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pooley ahead is positive, McClain ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+16, worth 27.8 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Lisa McClain, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of McClain +22.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Lisa McClain (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Ray Pooley (D) vs Lisa McClain (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 29.5, Republican 66.8. McClain by 37.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.7, Harris 48.3. Trump by 1.4.
Lean
R+16 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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