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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MI-13 ]

Michigan's 13th District

Donavan McKinney (D)vsT. P. Nykoriak (R)

open seat · Lean: D+22 · Incumbent: Shri Thanedar (D), not running

99 in 100

Donavan McKinney favored>99%

All but certain for Donavan McKinney: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+22
  • Incumbent:Shri Thanedar (D), not running
  • District:13 of 13 in Michigan
  • Odds:McKinney >99%
  • Margin:McKinney +48.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

McKinney +48.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
McKinney +48.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
McKinney +40.3 to McKinney +56.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
McKinney +48.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: McKinney ahead is positive, Nykoriak ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+22, worth 38.3 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of McKinney +48.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Shri Thanedar (D) lost the primary. Open seat.
On the ballot
Donavan McKinney (D) vs T. P. Nykoriak (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 68.6, Republican 24.5. Thanedar by 44.1.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.7, Harris 48.3. Trump by 1.4.
Lean
D+22 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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