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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NJ-04 ]

New Jersey's 4th District

Rachel Peace (D)vsChris Smith (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+14 · Incumbent: Chris Smith (R)

99 in 100

Chris Smith favored>99%

All but certain for Chris Smith: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+14
  • Incumbent:Chris Smith (R)
  • District:4 of 12 in New Jersey
  • Odds:Smith >99%
  • Margin:Smith +19.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Smith +19.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Smith +19.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Smith +27.1 to Smith +11.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Smith +19.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Peace ahead is positive, Smith ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+14, worth 24.4 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Chris Smith, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Smith +19.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Chris Smith (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Rachel Peace (D) vs Chris Smith (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 31.7, Republican 67.4. Smith by 35.7.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.1, Harris 52.0. Harris by 5.9.
Lean
R+14 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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