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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // NJ-05 ]

New Jersey's 5th District

Josh Gottheimer (D)vsSean Kirrane (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+2 · Incumbent: Josh Gottheimer (D)

99 in 100

Josh Gottheimer favored>99%

All but certain for Josh Gottheimer: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+2
  • Incumbent:Josh Gottheimer (D)
  • District:5 of 12 in New Jersey
  • Odds:Gottheimer >99%
  • Margin:Gottheimer +18.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Gottheimer +18.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Gottheimer +18.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Gottheimer +10.2 to Gottheimer +26.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Gottheimer +18.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Gottheimer ahead is positive, Kirrane ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+2, worth 3.5 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Josh Gottheimer, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Gottheimer +18.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Josh Gottheimer (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Josh Gottheimer (D, incumbent) vs Sean Kirrane (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 54.6, Republican 43.3. Gottheimer by 11.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.1, Harris 52.0. Harris by 5.9.
Lean
D+2 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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