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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NJ-06 ]

New Jersey's 6th District

Frank Pallone (D)vsHillary Herzig (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+5 · Incumbent: Frank Pallone (D)

99 in 100

Frank Pallone favored>99%

All but certain for Frank Pallone: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+5
  • Incumbent:Frank Pallone (D)
  • District:6 of 12 in New Jersey
  • Odds:Pallone >99%
  • Margin:Pallone +23.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Pallone +23.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Pallone +23.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Pallone +15.5 to Pallone +31.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Pallone +23.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pallone ahead is positive, Herzig ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+5, worth 8.7 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Frank Pallone, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Pallone +23.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Frank Pallone (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Frank Pallone (D, incumbent) vs Hillary Herzig (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 56.1, Republican 40.3. Pallone by 15.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.1, Harris 52.0. Harris by 5.9.
Lean
D+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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