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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NJ-11 ]

New Jersey's 11th District

Analilia Mejia (D)vsJoe Hathaway (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+5 · Incumbent: Analilia Mejia (D)

99 in 100

Analilia Mejia favored>99%

All but certain for Analilia Mejia: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+5
  • Incumbent:Analilia Mejia (D)
  • District:11 of 12 in New Jersey
  • Odds:Mejia >99%
  • Margin:Mejia +23.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Mejia +23.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Mejia +23.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Mejia +15.5 to Mejia +31.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Mejia +23.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Mejia ahead is positive, Hathaway ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+5, worth 8.7 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Analilia Mejia, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Mejia +23.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Analilia Mejia (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Analilia Mejia (D, incumbent) vs Joe Hathaway (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 56.5, Republican 41.2. Sherrill by 15.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.1, Harris 52.0. Harris by 5.9.
Lean
D+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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