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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NJ-03 ]

New Jersey's 3rd District

Herb Conaway (D)vsMichael McGuire (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+5 · Incumbent: Herb Conaway (D)

99 in 100

Herb Conaway favored>99%

All but certain for Herb Conaway: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+5
  • Incumbent:Herb Conaway (D)
  • District:3 of 12 in New Jersey
  • Odds:Conaway >99%
  • Margin:Conaway +23.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Conaway +23.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Conaway +23.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Conaway +15.5 to Conaway +31.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Conaway +23.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Conaway ahead is positive, McGuire ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+5, worth 8.7 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Herb Conaway, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Conaway +23.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Herb Conaway (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Herb Conaway (D, incumbent) vs Michael McGuire (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 53.2, Republican 44.6. Conaway by 8.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.1, Harris 52.0. Harris by 5.9.
Lean
D+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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