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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NJ-12 ]

New Jersey's 12th District

Adam Hamawy (D)vsGregg Mele (R)

open seat · Lean: D+13 · Incumbent: Bonnie Watson Coleman (D), not running

99 in 100

Adam Hamawy favored>99%

All but certain for Adam Hamawy: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+13
  • Incumbent:Bonnie Watson Coleman (D), not running
  • District:12 of 12 in New Jersey
  • Odds:Hamawy >99%
  • Margin:Hamawy +32.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hamawy +32.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hamawy +32.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hamawy +24.6 to Hamawy +40.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Hamawy +32.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hamawy ahead is positive, Mele ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+13, worth 22.6 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Hamawy +32.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Bonnie Watson Coleman (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Adam Hamawy (D) vs Gregg Mele (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 61.2, Republican 36.4. Coleman by 24.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.1, Harris 52.0. Harris by 5.9.
Lean
D+13 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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