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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // OH-12 ]

Ohio's 12th District

Jerrad Christian (D)vsTroy Balderson (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+15 · Incumbent: Troy Balderson (R)

99 in 100

Troy Balderson favored>99%

All but certain for Troy Balderson: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+15
  • Incumbent:Troy Balderson (R)
  • District:12 of 15 in Ohio
  • Odds:Balderson >99%
  • Margin:Balderson +20.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Balderson +20.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Balderson +20.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Balderson +28.8 to Balderson +13.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Balderson +20.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Christian ahead is positive, Balderson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+15, worth 26.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Troy Balderson, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Balderson +20.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Troy Balderson (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jerrad Christian (D) vs Troy Balderson (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 31.5, Republican 68.5. Balderson by 37.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.1, Harris 43.9. Trump by 11.2.
Lean
R+15 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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