Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // OH-14 ]

Ohio's 14th District

Maria Jukic (D)vsDavid Joyce (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: David Joyce (R)

9 in 10

David Joyce favored95%

Very likely for David Joyce: a 95 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+10
  • Incumbent:David Joyce (R)
  • District:14 of 15 in Ohio
  • Odds:Joyce 95%
  • Margin:Joyce +12.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Joyce +12.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Joyce +12.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Joyce +20.1 to Joyce +4.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Joyce +12.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jukic ahead is positive, Joyce ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+10, worth 17.4 points to the Republican), the incumbent (David Joyce, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Joyce +12.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
David Joyce (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Maria Jukic (D) vs David Joyce (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 36.6, Republican 63.4. Joyce by 26.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.1, Harris 43.9. Trump by 11.2.
Lean
R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats