Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // OH-15 ]

Ohio's 15th District

Don Leonard (D)vsMike Carey (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+5 · Incumbent: Mike Carey (R)

7 in 10

Mike Carey favored70%

Likely for Mike Carey: a 70 percent chance of winning. Polls: Mike Carey up 2.6.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+5
  • Incumbent:Mike Carey (R)
  • District:15 of 15 in Ohio
  • Odds:Carey 70%
  • Margin:Carey +3.2, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Carey +2.6
  • Latest poll:Hart Research Associates, Sep 24, Leonard +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Carey +3.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Carey +3.2
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Carey +9.3 to Leonard +2.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
Carey +2.6 across 3 polls, worth 0.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Carey +3.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Leonard ahead is positive, Carey ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mike Carey (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Don Leonard (D) vs Mike Carey (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 43.5, Republican 56.5. Carey by 13.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.1, Harris 43.9. Trump by 11.2.
Lean
R+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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