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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TN-05 ]

Tennessee's 5th District

Chaz Molder (D)vsCharlie Hatcher (R)

open seat · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Andy Ogles (R), not running

9 in 10

Charlie Hatcher favored90%

Very likely for Charlie Hatcher: a 90 percent chance of winning. Polls: Charlie Hatcher up 8.5.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+10
  • Incumbent:Andy Ogles (R), not running
  • District:5 of 9 in Tennessee
  • Odds:Hatcher 90%
  • Margin:Hatcher +7.9, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Hatcher +8.5
  • Latest poll:Impact Research, Oct 01, Hatcher +5.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hatcher +7.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hatcher +7.9
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hatcher +14.0 to Hatcher +1.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
Hatcher +8.5 across 3 polls, worth 0.3 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Hatcher +7.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Molder ahead is positive, Hatcher ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

  • Impact ResearchHatcher +5
    Oct 01 · B/C · 552 LV41 to 46 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Hatcher +8.3
  • Impact ResearchHatcher +8
    Aug 24 · B/C · 500 LV40 to 48 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Hatcher +11.3
  • Impact ResearchHatcher +6
    May 13 · B/C · 558 LV41 to 47 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Hatcher +9.3

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Andy Ogles (R) lost the primary. Open seat.
On the ballot
Chaz Molder (D) vs Charlie Hatcher (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 39.5, Republican 56.9. Ogles by 17.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.2, Harris 34.5. Trump by 29.7.
Lean
R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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