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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TN-04 ]

Tennessee's 4th District

Victoria Broderick (D)vsScott DesJarlais (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Scott DesJarlais (R)

9 in 10

Scott DesJarlais favored97%

All but certain for Scott DesJarlais: a 97 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Scott DesJarlais (R)
  • District:4 of 9 in Tennessee
  • Odds:DesJarlais 97%
  • Margin:DesJarlais +14.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

DesJarlais +14.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
DesJarlais +14.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
DesJarlais +21.9 to DesJarlais +6.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
DesJarlais +14.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Broderick ahead is positive, DesJarlais ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Scott DesJarlais, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of DesJarlais +14.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Scott DesJarlais (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Victoria Broderick (D) vs Scott DesJarlais (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 26.8, Republican 70.0. DesJarlais by 43.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.2, Harris 34.5. Trump by 29.7.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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