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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TN-07 ]

Tennessee's 7th District

Darden Copeland (D)vsMatt Van Epps (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Matt Van Epps (R)

9 in 10

Matt Van Epps favored97%

All but certain for Matt Van Epps: a 97 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Matt Van Epps (R)
  • District:7 of 9 in Tennessee
  • Odds:Epps 97%
  • Margin:Epps +14.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Epps +14.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Epps +14.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Epps +21.9 to Epps +6.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Epps +14.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Copeland ahead is positive, Epps ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Matt Van Epps, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Epps +14.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Matt Van Epps (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Darden Copeland (D) vs Matt Van Epps (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 38.0, Republican 59.5. Green by 21.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.2, Harris 34.5. Trump by 29.7.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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