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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TN-01 ]

Tennessee's 1st District

Kristi Burke (D)vsDiana Harshbarger (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+29 · Incumbent: Diana Harshbarger (R)

99 in 100

Diana Harshbarger favored>99%

All but certain for Diana Harshbarger: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+29
  • Incumbent:Diana Harshbarger (R)
  • District:1 of 9 in Tennessee
  • Odds:Harshbarger >99%
  • Margin:Harshbarger +45.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Harshbarger +45.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Harshbarger +45.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Harshbarger +53.2 to Harshbarger +37.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Harshbarger +45.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Burke ahead is positive, Harshbarger ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+29, worth 50.5 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Diana Harshbarger, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Harshbarger +45.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Diana Harshbarger (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Kristi Burke (D) vs Diana Harshbarger (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 19.1, Republican 78.4. Harshbarger by 59.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.2, Harris 34.5. Trump by 29.7.
Lean
R+29 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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