Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TN-09 ]

Tennessee's 9th District

Justin Pearson (D)vsBrent Taylor (R)

open seat · Lean: R+9 · Incumbent: Steve Cohen (D), not running

8 in 10

Brent Taylor favored85%

Likely for Brent Taylor: a 85 percent chance of winning. Polls: Brent Taylor up 7.4.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+9
  • Incumbent:Steve Cohen (D), not running
  • District:9 of 9 in Tennessee
  • Odds:Taylor 85%
  • Margin:Taylor +6.4, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Taylor +7.4
  • Latest poll:Hart Research Associates, Sep 03, Taylor +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Taylor +6.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Taylor +6.4
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Taylor +12.5 to Taylor +0.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Taylor +7.4 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Taylor +5.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pearson ahead is positive, Taylor ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Steve Cohen (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Justin Pearson (D) vs Brent Taylor (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 71.3, Republican 25.7. Cohen by 45.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.2, Harris 34.5. Trump by 29.7.
Lean
R+9 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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